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Entropy of the Gompertz-Makeham mortality model
Gompertz-Makeham mortality life table entropy
2014/11/26
Background: Life table entropy is a quantity frequently used in demography; e.g., as a measure of heterogeneity in age at death, or as the elasticity of life expectancy with regards to proportional ch...
Investigating healthy life expectancy using a multi-state model in the presence of missing data and misclassification
cognitive function microsimulation misclassification panel data
2014/11/26
Background: A continuous-time three-state model can be used to describe change in cognitive function in the older population. State 1 corresponds to normal cognitive function, state 2 to cognitive imp...
Another 'futile quest'? A simulation study of Yang and Land's Hierarchical Age-Period-Cohort model
age period cohort models identification problem MCMC simulation Yang and Land
2014/11/26
Background: Whilst some argue that a solution to the age-period-cohort (APC) 'identification problem' is impossible, numerous methodological solutions have been proposed, including Yang and Land's Hie...
Integrating uncertainty in time series population forecasts: An illustration using a simple projection model
Bayesian Bayesian approach England model averaging population forecasting Wales
2014/11/25
Background: Population forecasts are widely used for public policy purposes. Methods to quantify the uncertainty in forecasts tend to ignore model uncertainty and to be based on a single model.Objecti...
The age pattern of increases in mortality affected by HIV: Bayesian fit of the Heligman-Pollard Model to data from the Agincourt HDSS field site in rural northeast South Africa
AIDS/HIV Bayesian inference life expectancy South AfricaAIDS/HIV Bayesian inference life expectancy South Africa
2014/11/25
Background: We investigate the sex-age-specific changes in the mortality of a prospectively monitored rural population in South Africa. We quantify changes in the age pattern of mortality efficiently ...
Reforging the Wedding Ring: Exploring a Semi-Artificial Model of Population for the United Kingdom with Gaussian process emulators
agent-based computational demography Gaussian process emulator multistate models population dynamics sensitivity analysis
2014/11/25
Background: We extend the "Wedding Ring‟ agent-based model of marriage formation to include some empirical information on the natural population change for the United Kingdom together with behav...
A dynamic birth-death model via Intrinsic Linkage
birth-death models cyclical stability dynamic population models Leslie matrices metastable
2014/11/24
Background: Dynamic population models, or models with changing vital rates, are only beginning to receive serious attention from mathematical demographers. Despite considerable progress, there is stil...
The sequential propensity household projection model
Australia household projection household scenarios minimal household units sequential propensity model
2014/11/24
Background: The standard method of projecting living arrangements and households in Australia and New Zealand is the ‘propensity model', a type of extended headship rate model. Unfortunately it posses...
Estimates of Age-Specific Reductions in HIV Prevalence in Uganda: Bayesian Melding Estimation and Probabilistic Population Forecast with an HIV-enabled Cohort Component Projection Model
Africa AIDS/HIV Bayesian melding Cohort Component Model of Population Projection estimation forecast IMIS incidence prevalence Tanzania Uganda
2014/11/21
Background: Much of our knowledge of the epidemiology and demography of HIV epidemics in Africa is derived from models fit to sparse, non-representative data. These often average over age and other im...
Point and interval forecasts of age-specific life expectancies: A model averaging approach
Booth-Maindonald-Smith method functional data analysis Hyndman-Ullah method Lee-Carter method Lee-Miller method principal components analysis random walk with drift
2014/11/21
Background: Any improvement in the forecast accuracy of life expectancy would be beneficial for policy decision regarding the allocation of current and future resources. In this paper, I revisit some ...
Discussing the Strehler-Mildvan model of mortality
force of mortality Gompertz law proportional hazards Strehler-Mildvan correlation vitality
2014/11/20
Background: Half a century ago Strehler and Mildvan (1960) have published the seminal paper that, based on some assumptions (postulates), theoretically 'justified' the Gompertz law of mortality.Object...
More on the cohort-component model of population projection in the context of HIV/AIDS: A Leslie matrix representation and new estimates
population projection matrix representation
2014/11/20
This article presents an extension of the cohort-component model of population projection
(CCMPP) first formulated by Heuveline (2003) that is capable of modeling a population
affected by HIV....
An Equilibrium Model of the African HIV/AIDS Epidemic
Bayesian learning circumcision condoms disease transmission HIV/AIDS homo economicus Malawi marriage policy intervention sex markets search STDs
2014/3/31
Eleven percent of the Malawian population is HIV infected. Eighteen percent of sexual encounters are casual. A condom is used one quarter of the time. A choice-theoretic general equilibrium search mod...
Migration, Demographic Change and Income Distribution in a Model of Developing Country
Income Distribution Migration Demographic Change
2014/3/24
Migration, Demographic Change and Income Distribution in a Model of Developing Country。
From Shame to Game in One Hundred Years: A Macroeconomic Model of the Rise in Premarital Sex and its De-Stigmatization
Peer-group effects Premarital sex Shame Socialization Stigmatization Technological progress
2014/3/31
Societies socialize children about sex. This is done in the presence of peer-group effects, which may encourage undesirable behavior. Parents want the best for their children. Still, they weigh the ma...